Conflict-ravaged Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a farce, with key opposition groups banned, many of their leaders jailed and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing civil war.

A Staggered Vote Amid Conflict

The military government is holding a staggered election nearly five years after it seized power in a takeover, which sparked widespread opposition and spiralled into a civil war.

Analysts note the junta, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, association or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for interfering with or criticising the election under a recently enacted legislation which imposes severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a film endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a statement, pointing out that resistance forces have made warnings asking people to shun the polls.

The army has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own militias. It lost control of vast areas of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under rebel administration presents a huge operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it challenging to predict a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and independent candidates will contest only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while others are in exile.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the authorities can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while regional bloc Asean has urged political dialogue to precede any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not being held for the outside world," a junta spokesman told a news conference last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".