A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
